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Politics and Polarization in the UMC

Timeline

2022 - Ongoing

Status: In Progress

Description

Data from the 2020 National Survey of Religious Leaders shows that while conservative Protestant congregations are highly polarized (80% of members and clergy lean Republican), Mainline Protestants are split along partisan lines, and Mainline clergy are more liberal than their congregations. This project team explores the social, political, and health impacts of political polarization among Mainline clergy and congregations, with the ultimate aim of developing recommendations for clergy and congregations on how to facilitate civil discourse and bridge political differences, as well as for denominational leaders seeking to support clergy in doing so.

This project has three main components:

  1. Collection and textual analysis of sermon data: To examine when and how clergy engage political issues in their congregational leadership, the team has assembled a large corpus of sermons delivered by United Methodist pastors in North Carolina. Using a stratified random sample of congregations—with an intentional oversample of majority-Black churches—we collected more than 20,000 sermons delivered between March 2020 and February 2021, a period marked by the COVID-19 pandemic, racial justice protests, the 2020 election, and denominational conflict over LGBTQ+ inclusion. Sermons were gathered from publicly available sources (e.g., church websites, YouTube, Facebook), extracted from full services, and linked to individual pastors for whom we have data on demographics, political views, and ministerial context, as well as to congregational characteristics. We are using computational methods, including large language models, to identify and analyze political content in sermons, beginning with topics related to race and public health. This integrated dataset allows us to examine the conditions under which clergy address political issues and to better understand whether, when, and how they function as political authorities within their communities.
     
  2. Interviews with current clergy: To examine the current state of practice and thinking among clergy regarding political polarization in their congregations, the team interviewed 45 current or recently retired United Methodist pastors as part of our Reflections in Ministry Study. We asked questions such as: Where have you seen evidence of polarization or political tension in your congregation/s, if at all? When and how, if at all, do you address salient social and political issues in your ministry? What challenges do you face when addressing these topics? Do you think congregants view you as an authority on social and political issues? Do you feel prepared to manage political tensions and/or address political issues? What resources do you rely on? What resources would you like to have access to? Using this data, the team is exploring how pastors experience polarization and how they've managed political differences and/or tensions in their churches.
     
  3. Analysis of survey and administrative data: This component of the project draws on the longitudinal Statewide Clergy Health Survey, which has followed more than 2,000 United Methodist pastors in North Carolina since 2008, providing detailed data on clergy wellbeing, career trajectories, demographics, and social networks. Beginning in 2021, the survey was expanded to include measures of political views, experiences of political difference, and clergy social networks, enabling new analyses of polarization within clergy contexts. We integrate these survey data with administrative and contextual measures—including county-level indicators of political affiliation—to capture the broader political environments in which clergy live and work. Our analyses examine how political difference and conflict within congregations, communities, and clergy networks are associated with clergy occupational wellbeing and mental health, and whether clergy social networks themselves are becoming more politically polarized over time.

Team

Members

  • Ryan Parker, Research Analyst, Duke Global Health Institute
  • Kelsey Mischke, Research Assistant, Duke Religion and Social Change Lab

Leaders

Sponsors

  • Bass Connections (Duke)
  • Social Science Research Council, Religion, Spirituality, and Democratic Renewal Program
  • Society for the Scientific Study of Religion
  • Institute for Humane Studies
  • The Duke Endowment

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